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Practice Matters

Weak players often speak of being pot-committed

Weak players often speak of being pot-committed when they have an easy fold. Suppose you raise A-7 to 2.25BBs from late position out of your 30BB stack and a tight player in the big blind calls. The flop comes J-7-2. Your opponent checks and you bet 4BBs. Your opponent goes all-in for 23BBs more. At this point the pot is about 38BBs, giving you 1.6-to-1 odds. You have nowhere near 40-percent equity in this hand but weak players make this call all the time. Against a range made up of mostly top pair or better but also 10-10, 9-9 and 8-8, you have a whopping 20-percent equity. If we add the most likely sevens to your opponents range, such as A-7, K-7, 8-7 and 7-6, you still only have 35-percent equity.

So, even though you have middle pair, top kicker,

So, even though you have middle pair, top kicker, you have an easy fold if you know your opponent will never bluff here with air. Adding just three hands in with one overcard each to our opponent’s range bumps us up to 45-percent equity, making this much closer to a call. Always do your best to determine your opponent’s range. If you can accurately predict his range of hands, you are left with a fairly simple math problem. From there, poker becomes simple. Call if you are getting a much better price than you need. Fold if you aren’t. It’s that simple.

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